The chances of killing a B&C buck...

[PoisonSnake]

The chances of killing a buck that nets 170 inches is pretty slim. I had mentioned to you fellows the numbers that I had read at the barbershop last month. Well, here they are. In the US, between the years of 2000 and 2003, ~5.5 million whitetails were killed (I'm not sure if this was total deer or bucks only). Anyway, the number of B&C entries over that time period was only 300. So, that is a percentage of 5.5e-3%. The chances of killing one in Buffalo County, Wisconsin were a bit better at 0.04%. The chance of some county in IA was maybe 0.05% or 0.06%. If you see one or have seen one, you should feel blessed. If you kill one or have killed one, you are amongst an elite group of hunters. I have seen 2 that I thought might go 170". But, I can't be certain on that. Especially after my last two good deer have suffered scorewise due to significant assymetry. PS

[lonepine]

right on PS, let be glad we get the opportunity to hunt.

[Outdoorsfool]

PS - Significant assymetry?? I thought your story was it suffered shrinkage. Which is it??



You're assuming that everyone that shoots a 170 or bigger reports it. Not everyone is in this game to have their name in a book somewhere.

[counts]

Ahhhhhhhh?

[PoisonSnake]

It is according to which deer you are talking about OF. I clearly stated my last 2 good deer. If they are gonna be close, I will have them officially scored.



Well, let's say this is only half of what got reported. Doesn't change things much.

[Warmouth]

It would double your chances, just like buying two lottery tickets.

[counts]

Exactly.
Your model doesn't factor in amt. of time in the woods either.
Ex. A hunter that didn't go out at all last year, will have less chance of taking a B&C than someone that hunted every legal hour during the season.

[Keith@AimLow]

NOOOOOWWWW you tell me Smitty. Here I am passing up all these 130-160" deer waiting for my booner to come along and little did i know my chances are better to get struck by lightening. Next year Im lowering my standards.

[PoisonSnake]

It is not my model. I think the title of the exerpt was "Like Finding a Needle in a Haystack". It is sheer numbers that were published in Outdoor Life. Does living in MO where they have an estimated population of 1.1e6 deer improve my chances over let's say IL for example? I doubt it. I'm not sure what the population in IL is. But, I would say my chances are better in MO than, for example, Maryland or New Jersey. As far as more hunting hours put in, I would bet most of these 300 entries were gunkills. So, if that is the case (and I don't know if it is), that would shoot a hole in the more hours put in to kill one theory. Many weekend warrior gun hunters spend little or no time on a stand prior to the first weekend of gun season. And, from what I have seen, those dudes are the ones that luck in to a monster more often than guys like you and me Counts.



BTW, Dave-t, if you buy a second lottery ticket, your chances are not doubled of winning although it would seem so. It is still pretty much the same. One shot in many millions. The article stated that the chances of a person getting struck by lightning are higher than that of killing a B&C buck.

[counts]

I never said I was a mathmagician.

[PoisonSnake]

I tell you guys that was an interesting read. After reading it, it made me feel pretty good to have killed a single 150" deer. I was telling [email]Keith@aimlow[/email] that about every 5 years I get a chance at a legitimate 140-150" deer. I put a lot of hours in a stand too. I've never had a chance at a true monster. I think I would have a heart attack if I saw a deer like some of these fellows are killing.

[Bloodtrail]

PS, It is interesting to realize that it is VERY rare for someone to actually score on a buck that nets 170" or better. Being a measurer, and seeing many really good bucks, I see it all the time that the net score of a buck is much lower than peoples expectations. When you do see an actual B&C book buck, you know it immediately. It really stands out above the crowd of nice bucks. I always kinda laugh to myself when you constantly hear people talk about seeing Booners. I bet 90% of the time they saw a nice buck, but not a Booner. They are extremely rare.

[lonepine]

same people when they start draging pull out 125lb deer and say its 200.

[Keith@AimLow]

Where did everybody go today?

[RB]

PS, what were you doing in a barber shop? Why don't you just buy some pet clippers for ten buck at Walmart and save the money you spend on the barber for your own subscription to outdoorlife.